Chesler Analytics

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Recognizing that all self-reported performance records represent an obvious conflict of interest, the following summary gives just some of the highlights since we began publishing in 2003. Our market outlooks (in bold) come from our weekly reports. A brief recap of subsequent market action is also provided.

Please keep in mind that our clients are professionals who use our service as an overlay or input factor in their own models, and rely on us chiefly for idea generation and timely market calls rather than systematic trades.



Apr 7 — Natural gas: “Bottoming.”

Natural gas rose 31% over the next two months before peaking.

Jul 30 — Natural gas: “The market has gotten ahead of itself, and shows the pre-conditions necessary for a rally.”

This marked the bottom in gas for the next three weeks.

Sep 7 — Crude: “Corrections, even deep ones, should be viewed as buying opportunities.”

The correction was deep, though brief, lasting only to mid-September. Crude sprang sharply making new annual highs by October.


Mar 1 — Crude: “The entire long-term chart structure of crude oil and products between 1999 and 2004 leads us to believe the market has built a foundation for a major advance. Targets over $50.”

September '04 crude contract traded $49.40 by late August.

Oct 19 — “While the likelihood of a sharp break in the energy complex seems to be growing, primary long-term trends should remain up.”

By early November, crude had fallen $10/bbl. By March, crude made new highs, over $55.


May 27 — “Buy July natural gas, target $6.80.”

Gas rallied over 20% over the next three weeks, reaching as high as $7.90.

Sep 07 — “Buy November natural gas at $12.20, target $12.90.”

A week later November gas had exceeded our target, and traded as high as $14.75 by early October.


Apr 5 — “Crude oil has been in a $10/bbl range since September of 2005. We believe the range is on the verge of expanding. Trade crude from the long side.”

By mid-April, Crude for June delivery made new contract highs, rising $7/bbl.

Nov 30 — “We continue to see longer-term problems for the natural gas market. Recent buyers will have little to no patience if price comes back down into the trading range of the past two months; be prepared to establish short positions if gas re-enters its Oct-Nov trading range.”

After coming back down through the Oct-Nov trading range, front month gas futures declined roughly $2.00 (25%) over the following month.


Apr 2 — “The odds of the market trading over $8.00 in the near future are better than 50%.”

Six trading sessions later, May gas traded over $8.00.

Jul 2 — “How much lower? $6.40 basis Oct and $6.00 basis Sep are probably good places to begin looking.”

Less than a week later Oct gas traded $6.40. Sep gas traded $6.00 three weeks later.

Oct 22 — “We continue to favor a strategy of buying/covering gas on weakness.”

For the entire month of October we advised buying gas on weakness. The gas market traded in a choppy range most of the month then staged a 30% rally (10/23 through 11/2), the largest perecentage move over any similar period all year.


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